State Assembly Election Analysis

There is a possibility Assembly Republicans could lose five to ten seats. While specific seats in western Wisconsin are always considered vulnerable for Republicans, campaign spending shows significant spending among Democratic candidates in the Milwaukee suburbs, spelling potential worry for Republican incumbents. Conventional wisdom says that where spending is high, races are competitive.

Financial reports from last week in the 21st Assembly district (South Milwaukee, Oak Creek), which is held by Republican Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, show Democratic challenger and South Milwaukee Mayor Erik Brooks and groups backing him have outspent Rodriguez and her supporters $432,681 to $228,628.

The 23rd Assembly District (Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, Bayside, Mequon) is currently held by Republican incumbent Jim Ott. Finance reports show Republicans have committed a significant amount of money in defending that seat. Republicans are outspending the Democratic challenger, Deb Andraca, and supportive groups $460,532 to $199,016. Rep. Ott has held this Republican stronghold seat since 2006.

Similar concern seems to be reflected in the neighboring 24th Assembly District (Germantown, Menomonee Falls, Brown Deer) held by Republican Rep. Dan Knodl. Total spending between the two candidates have surpassed $1 million.

Knodl’s campaign and groups supporting him have spent a total of $850,288. His challenger, Democrat Emily Siegrist, and supportive groups have spent $390,030 on her campaign.

Democrats also seem to be making a play in unseating Republican Rep. Rob Hutton in the 13th Assembly District (Elm Grove, Brookfield). Democrat challenger Sara Rodriguez and supportive groups have outspent Hutton and his supporters $417,511 to $404,244.

While it is unlikely that all four of the incumbent Milwaukee-area Republican representatives will lose their seats, the financial reports certainly indicate concern among Republicans. This is likely due to a loss of support among suburban women; a shift seen nationally in opposition to President Donald Trump among that demographic.

Another Republican-held seat to watch is in the 88th Assembly District (part of Green Bay, De Pere, Bellevue). Democrat Kristin Lyerly and supportive groups have outspent Republican Rep. John Macco by a factor of 7 to 1. Lyerly and supportive groups have spent $324,885 versus $47,132.

The other vulnerable Republican Assembly seats we are watching are the typical vulnerable seats in western Wisconsin. These include the 51st District held by Todd Novak, the 96th District held by Loren Oldenburg, and the 50th District held by Tony Kurtz. However, these are seats Republicans traditionally expect to be contested and defend in campaign cycles.

In the Novak seat, Democratic challenger Kriss Marion and supportive groups are outspending Novak $292,267 to $226,556.

Assembly Republicans currently hold a 27-seat majority, 63 to 36 seats. Even if they lose five to eight seats, they still maintain control of the Assembly.

State Senate Election Analysis

Whereas it previously appeared Senate Republicans were playing offense to grow their majority, it seems they are having to play defense in similar areas for similar reasons.

As noted above, Assembly Republicans appear to be concerned about Republican incumbents Jim Ott and Dan Knodl. Their seats make up two of the three Assembly districts that make up the 8th Senate Seat (Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, Bayside, Mequon, Germantown, Menomonee Falls, Brown Deer, southern Washington County, northeastern Waukesha County) held by longtime incumbent Senator Alberta Darling.

Financial reports show Democratic challenger Neal Plotkin and supportive groups have outspent Darling and her supporters $742,196 to $371,074.

Darling’s district could suffer the same loss in support among suburban women Assembly Republicans are concerned about in the Ott and Knodl seats.

Defending Republican Senator Patrick Testin in the 24th Senate District (Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Sparta, Tomah) is also becoming expensive. Financial reports show Democrats are outspending Republicans in that district $484,751 to $400,556 with both candidate’s campaign committees alone spending six figures.

In the open seats in the 30th Senate District (Green Bay area) and 32nd Senate District (LaCrosse area), races seem to be close in reflection of the staggering amount of money being spent by both Republicans and Democrats. Millions have been spent in both districts, with the Democratic candidates and supportive groups outspending their Republican challengers. It is fair to say both seats remain tossups. However, with some amount of Republican spending needing to be focused on defending Darling and Testin, Democrats (Jonathan Hansen in 30th, Brad Pfaff in the 32nd) may have the upper hand in being successful on Election Day.

Senate Republicans currently hold 19 of the 33 Senate seats. It is important to note the 30th and 32nd districts are seats that Democrats are looking to defend. Both were previously held by Democrats. Should Republicans lose both, it does not help Democrats grow their share of seats. In order to do so, they would need to flip a Republican-held seat.

Additionally, it is possible Republicans could flip the 10th Senate District held by Democratic Senator Patty Schachtner. In which case, even if Democrats flipped a seat, it would not grow their minority.

It is difficult to predict how many seats each side could lose on Election Day. However, we believe it is still safe to say, no matter the outcome of individual races, Republicans will retain their majority in the State Senate.